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Number of Pages: 139
In the existing design methods, consideration
is given only on the stochastic process of flood flows
imposed on the structure to account for hydrologic risk
and the capacity of the structure is treated as deterministic.
This thesis presents composite risk models which
integrated hydrologic and hydraulic risks in the design
of spillway structure. Both static and dynamic risk models
were developed and applied to Ogee Type Spillway. While
the static model concentrates on the occurrence of single
(worse) flood magnitude, the dynamic model takes into
account the repeated nature of the random flood magnitude
imposed on the structure. Results show that risk evaluated
by the conventional method which only considers hydrologic
risk underestimates the risk of failure and this becomes
significant when return period and safety factors are large.
Risk, safety factor, service life, and return period relationships
were established and these can be incorporated into optimisation
model for determining minimum cost spillway systems.
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