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It is globally accepted that media reporting, to a great extent, influences voters perception of given candidates for public office. The adoption of propaganda in electioneering campaigns including use of hate speeches could make or mar the chances of presidential candidates at leadership ascendancy. Inspite of existing laws regulating reporting of political events, there was massive use of hate speeches and propaganda ahead of the presidential elections of 2011 and 2015 in Nigeria, which led to electoral violence. The study examined media reporting and the nature of its influence on voting behaviour and leadership ascendancy during the said presidential elections.
This study employed survey research design. The study population consisted 160 million, using the 2006 census. Multi stage sampling technique was used in the process of selection. Six states, one from each geopolitical zone (Abia, Bauchi, Kaduna, Lagos, Plateau, Rivers), were purposively selected, with a total population of 30,954,672, (being states that recorded electoral violence cases). Using Yamane’s formula, a sample size of 2,169 was determined. Snowball sampling technique was used in selecting the interviewees; namely, six senators one each from the geopolitical zones, six reporters, and three correspondents from Television houses. The instruments used for data collection were validated questionnaire and interview guide. The Cronbach’s alpha reliability coefficients for the constructs ranged from 0.724 to 0.819.The response rate was 93%. Data from the questionnaire were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Data from front pages of 6 national newspapers were content-analysed. Data from personal interviews were analysed according to themes.
The findings showed that media reporting had a significant influence on voting behaviour (R2 = 0.388, F(1,2014) = 1274.872; p < 0.05); and on leadership ascendancy (R2 = 0.478, F(1,2014) = 1274.872; p < 0.05). Moreover it was revealed that positive and significant relationships existed between voting behaviour and leadership ascendancy (r = 0.693; p < 0.05). Media reporting and voting behaviour had a significant influence on leadership ascendancy (Adj.R2 = 0.590, F(2,2013)= 1450.562; p < 0.05,). Television was the main media source used that influenced voting behaviour. Other extraneous factors such as monetary inducement, ethnic and religious affiliation, opinion of community leaders, godfatherism, and personal benefits influenced voters’ choice of leadership in 2011 and 2015.
The study concluded that media reporting of party propaganda, hate speeches, and programme promises, influenced voters choice of candidates, thereby determining leadership ascendancy in both 2011 and 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria. It was recommended that the National Broadcasting Commission and Nigerian Press Council should strictly implement the Electoral Act 2010 No. 6 Section 99-102; on media houses that engage in reporting hate speeches and propaganda. In addition, Independent National Electoral Commission should engage in massive political education programmes to promote peaceful conduct of elections.
Keywords: Media reporting, Voting behaviour, Leadership ascendancy, Presidential elections,
Word Count: 452
Title Page i
Table of Contents vii
List of Tables xi
List of Figures xiii
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Study 1
1.2 Statement of the Problem 5
1.3 Objective of Study 6
1.4 Research Questions 7
1.5 Hypotheses 8
1.6 Significance of the Study 8
1.7 Scope of the Study 8
1.8Operational Definition of Terms 9
1.9 Chapter Outline 10
CHAPTER TWO: REVIEWOF LITERATURE
2.0 Introduction 11
2.1 Media and Elections 11
2.1.1 Political Advertising in the Media 21
2.1.2 Media coverage of Elections in Nigeria 23
2.2 Media Coverage of party Presidential Primaries 25
2.2.1 Media coverage of general Presidential elections 27
2.3 Media Reporting and Voting Behaviour 33
2.3.1.Media Ownership and Reporting 43
2.4 Leadership Ascendancy and Media Reporting 46
2.5 Media and Women in Leadership 47
2.6 Voting Behaviour and Leadership Ascendancy 49
2.7 Gaps in Literature 51
2.8 Theoretical Framework 53
2.8.1 Agenda Setting Theory 54
2.8.2 Public Choice Theory 55
CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY
3.1 Research Design 58
3.2 Population 59
3.3 Samplesize and sampling Technique 59
3.4 Method of Data Collection 61
3.5 Sources of Data 61
3.6 Research Instrument 62
3.7 Test of reliability of the research Instrument 62
3.8 Administration of Research Instrument 63
3.9 Method of Data Analysis 63
3.10 Ethical Considerations 63
CHAPTER FOUR: DATA ANALYSIS, RESULTS AND
DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
4.0 Introduction 64
4.1 Questionnaire Administration 64
4.2 Selected Demographic Characteristics 65
4.3 Demographic Characteristics 69
4.4 Data Analysis on Respondents Perception of Media Sources 75
4.5 Data Analysis to Answer Research Questions 82
4.5.1 Media reporting influence on voting behaviour in Nigeria during the presidential
elections of 2011 and 2015 82
4.6.1: Discussion of findings on Research Question one: How did media reporting
influencevoting behaviour in Nigeria during the presidential elections of
2011 and 2015? 83
4.6.2 Media reporting influence on leadership ascendancy 85
4.6.3 Nature of influence that media reporting had on leadership ascendancy in
Nigeria during the 2011 and 2015 presidential elections 88
4.6.4 Composite effect of media reporting to voting behaviour on leadership
ascendancy in the 2011 and 2015 presidential elections 92
4.6.5 Manner, trend and language of the frequency of newspaper and television
reporting of Presidential elections of the period under study. 95
4.7Test of Research Hypotheses 101
4.7.1 Hypothesis 1 101
4.7.2 Hypothesis 2 103
4.7.3 Hypothesis 3 106
4.7.4 Hypothesis 4 107
CHAPTER FIVE: CONTENT ANALYSIS OF NEWSPAPER
REPORTS AND INTERVIEW RESPONSES
5.1 Content Analysis of Newspaper Front Page Reports 111
CHAPTER SIX: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND Page
6.1 Summary 132
6.2 Conclusion 134
6.3 Recommendations 135
6.4 Contribution to Knowledge 136
6.5 Suggestions for Further Studies 137
LIST OF TABLES
2.2.1 List of Parties, Presidential Candidates and their Running Mates 26
3.3.1 Questionnaire Administration 59
3.7.1 Reliability Statistics 62
3.7.2 Cronbach’s Alpha Table 63
4.1.1 Data for analysis 64
4.2.1 Selected Demographic Characteristics (Lagos, Bauchi and Rivers States) 65
4.2.2 Selected Demographic Characteristics (Kaduna, Plateau and Abia States) 67
4.3.1: Respondents’ Demographic Characteristics 70
4.4.1 Respondents’ Perception on Media Sources 76
4.4.2 Respondents who voted during the 2011 presidential election 79
4.4.3 Reasons which stopped respondents from voting 79
4.4.4 Respondents who voted during the 2015 presidential election 80
4.4.5 Reasons which stopped respondents from voting 80
4.5.1: Media Reporting and Voting Behaviour 82
4.6.2: Media Reporting and Leadership Ascendancy 85
4.6.3: Nature of Influence Media Reporting and Leadership Ascendancy 88
4.6.4: Composite Effect of Media Reporting to Voting Behaviour and Leadership
4.6.5a: Manner, and trend of the frequency of television reporting of Presidential
elections of the period under study 2011 and 2015 95
4.6.5b: Major factor considered to have had great influence on the behaviour of
voters in 2011 presidential elections. 99
4.6.5c: Major factor considered to have had great influence on the behaviour of
voters in 2015 presidential elections 100
4.7.1a: Model Summary 101
4.7.1b: ANOVAa 101
4.7.1c: Coefficientsa 102
4.7.1d Summary of evaluation statistics of simple regression analysis between Media
And Voting Behaviour 102
4.7.2a: Model Summary103
4.7.2d: Summary of evaluation statistics of simple regression analysis between Media
Reporting and Leadership Ascendancy 105
4.7.3: Correlations 106
4.7.4a: Model Summary 107
4.7.4b: ANOVAa 107
4.7.4c: Coefficientsa 108
4.7.4d: Summary of evaluation statistics of multiple regression analysis between
media reporting, voters’ behaviour and leadership ascendancy 108
5.1.1: Hate Speeches/Insults 114
5.1.2: Promises 115
5.1.3:Threats and Propaganda 116
5.1.4: Campaigns 117
5.1.5 APC/Buhari Prominence 119
5.1.6: PDP and Jonathan Prominence 120
5.1.7: Ethnic Interest 122
5.1.8: Religious Interests 123
5.1.9: Fights/Explosions 125
5.1.10: INEC Reports 126
5.1.11: Comprehensive Summary of Data obtained from Newspapers 129
LIST OF FIGURES
1: Selected Demographic Characteristics (Lagos, Bauchi and Rivers States) 66
2: Selected Demographic Characteristics (Kaduna, Plateau and Abia States) 68
3: Respondents Combined Demographic Characteristics by Gender 72
4: Respondents Combined Demographic Characteristics by Age 72
5: Respondents Combined Demographic Characteristics by Highest
Educational Qualification 73
6: Respondents Combined Demographic Characteristics by Religious
7: Respondents Combined Demographic Characteristics by Profession 74
8: Respondents Combined Demographic Characteristics by Ethnicity 74
9: Respondents Combined Demographic Characteristics by Registered
10: Hate Speeches/Insults 114
11: Promises 115
12: Threats and Propaganda 116
13: Campaigns 118
14: APC/Buhari Prominence 119
15: PDP AND Jonathan Prominence 121
16: Ethnic Interests 122
17: Religious Interest 124
18: Fights/Explosions 125
19: INEC 127
Pictorial View of Interview Sessions In National Assembly
1.1 Background to the Study
Media reporting of events and issues in Nigeria has advanced significantly within the upsurges of the country’s politics, especially in her processes of elections. Yet, there seems to be a growing concern on the influence of media reporting in the past presidential elections and more critically in the 2011 and 2015 presidential elections. A cursory look at the influence exerted by media reporting around the world in presidential election processes, strains the importance of studying the influence of media reporting in aforementioned subject in Nigeria. Media refers to any means of transmitting information which is done through the various forms, devices, and systems that make up mass communications considered as a whole, including newspapers, magazines, radio stations, television channels, and the internet. Media reporting therefore is the use of these medium to present news or report events or issues (Danesi, 2009).
Media reporting is not done in a vacuum, it makes use of linguistic which makes reporting effective and significant (Allan, 2015) The phonology in writing or broadcasting an event or an issue has much to do with the understanding or misunderstanding of the event or issue being reported. Again, the approach or the attitude in which the written event or broadcast is being released to the masses affect their understanding of the information passed to them. This in turn brings to fore the intended goal of the media in their report of such events and issues under discussion. This can be summed up to be news framing. McQuail (2010) agrees that framing may activate certain inferences, ideas, judgments and contrast concerned issues, policies and politicians. The slant may dictate what readers may likely perceive and how voters may behave after such perception from the media towards making a political choice.
Voting behaviour therefore is a political behaviour of choice or preference based on the information available to the voter (Zahida & Younis, 2014). The plan of the media is always to sway the masses opinion on a particular issue to achieve a specific result. No difference is found when it comes to the matter of politics and the influence language of media reporting approach or attitude of report exert on voting behaviour. The influence of media on voters and their conviction towards any candidate as has been sold to them by the media produces leadership.
As a matter of fact, leadership has been a source of attraction, estimation, legend, and myth since the beginning of civilized societies. The Egyptians for instance had hieroglyphics for leadership, leader, and follower 5000 years ago. Both Plato and Aristotle were not exempted from this issue as they wrote about leadership, contemplating on the requirements of the ideal leader in an ideal state. Many Countries in the world and particularly in the continent of Africa have experienced leadership ascendency through elections and some through coup d’état, and the country Nigeria is not an exception in her developmental stages since October 1, 1960 when she gained her independence. However, democratically political development in Nigeria has taken a center phase in recent times, this is affixed on the fact that since May 29, 1999, the country seem to have maintained a stable democratic dispensation. Nevertheless, one common feature of recent wave is media reporting influence on voting behavior to leadership ascendancy. Countries like France, Britain, Sweden, and the USA as examples, make use of the mass media to educate voters (Udende, 2011). Hence the reason for their much dependence on the media for information.
Consequently, the influence of Media reporting on voting behavior to leadership ascendancy in Nigeria has attracted the interest of scholars, practitioners, political leaders and observers, Agba (2006); Antoci, Sabatini, and Mauro (2012); Durante, Brian, and Knight, (2012); Dyck David, and Luigi (2013) Egba, (2003); Egbuna (2011); Gabadebo (2010); Galadima (2012); Galadima & Enighe (2001); Sabatini (2012);and Sabatini and Sarracino (2014). The following scholars, Antoci, Sabatini, and Mauro (2012); Dyck, Moss, and Luigi (2013) Sabatini,(2012); and Sabatini, and Sarracino (2014) posit that the manner in which the media (radio, television, newspapers, magazines) report events, campaigns and information exert influence on voters in their choice of leadership selection.On the contrary, Alatobi, (2013), Didmus (2009) Okafor (2014), Zahida and Younis (2014) are of the opinion that other factors apart from reporting influence voting behavior to leadership ascendancy.
Therefore, leadership ascendancy is perceived as the action of leading or directing a group of people or an organization, or the ability to occupy a position of dominant power or influence or the state of being in the leading; governing or controlling influence; dominationWithin the last decade, a new surge of leader has risen to positions of official leadership in Nigeria. Official leadership positions, as defined by Robnett (1996), are those that are institutionally acknowledged positions inside an organization which involve essential control over assistants. Skilled political action within a party earns members the reputation required to raise themselves to positions of leadership which they do by effectively making use of the media to extend their influence.
Again, the media as an institution play a pivotal role in creating awareness and shaping attitudes in society. Also, the media constitute the real public space through which citizens understand politics. This role makes the media a veritable tool to either make or mar any aspirant from winning an election. The media at times use true facts to draw false conclusions and this is where the media saying, “if thoughts corrupt language, language can also corrupt thoughts”(Orwell,2011: 16). This is because different political groups with their jingles, agenda and public issues attract voters knowingly or unknowingly and the reporting of the media mold voting behaviour and their opinion. Strong democracy depends on information and knowledge. It is often said that information is power and that correct information is vital to clear thinking, just as clear thinking is vital to making sound judgment. Voters can be influenced ranging from ethnicity to religious, leading voters to making certain decisions as regards selection of candidates based on the information available to them and the manner in which it has been reported.
In order for any democratic system to flourish, political parties and candidates are to provide the electorate with satisfactory information on party policies, unambiguous vision as well as their political agenda to enable electorate dynamically choose their candidates founded on full evidence. To realize this, political parties use the media in campaigns. Curran (2005) states that the media assist voters to make knowledgeable choice at election time. This is done in form of social media campaigns, paid political advertisments, commentaries and news stories. For an election to be considered free and fair, electorate must have adequate knowledge of the candidates, political parties and election policies
Lately, political parties and their candidates have come to realize the effectiveness of advertisements and the role it plays in getting the electorate chose a particular candidate or party over the other by way of enlightening them. The manner in which mass media report things has become progressively popular and is significant to the electoral process and voting behavior because it bridges the communication gap between political parties, political candidates and electorate. Hence, political parties and candidates all around the world dedicate a lot of financial resources to patronize media houses to sell themselves as the preferred brand to the electorate. Interestingly, the most questions that come up in elections are concerned with voting behavior and why the electorate voted for a candidate over the other as well as the implication of their choice. Arguments have ensued among scholars and communication experts that when politicians crafts their campaign messages as possible solution to improve voters lives, or something similar and come with some perceived decent measure of integrity, voters are more likely to believe them (Feyipitan 2015). In other words, the electorate are most likely to trust candidates whose political campaigns offer to satisfy their basic needs as opposed to those who dwell on their personal achievements pending on the way it is communicated through the media.
Presidential elections of 2011 and 2015 in Nigeria, witnessed large patronage of various forms of mass media by political parties and candidates for the singular purpose of winning electorate votes. At the end, Goodluck Jonathan who was the candidate of the People Democratic Party (PDP) won in 2011 and Mohammad Buhari of All Progressive Congress (APC) emerged as the President of Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2015 respectively. Before the elections, their campaigns filled media airwaves, social media and billboards with messages for every class of people who made up the electorate. Their jingles dominated radio and television stations, social media sites while their messages streamed the print and outdoor media with promises to deliver. However, the extent to which media reporting of their campaigns fostered their winning remains the task of this research. The starring role or sway exerted by the approach and modus in which the media report events and its weight on voters behavior has enticed or motivated the interest of many scholars, spectators and political cream of the crop in Nigeria more especially this research as it forms the thrust of the entire work.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
The media, in all their manifestations, are instruments to make or mar the attainment to leadership positions, especially of political aspirants. The vibrant flow of information provided by the media seems to increase political knowledge, sharpen public debate and push candidates to make genuine political clichés, and arguably also, the availability of alternative sources of information gives life to political competition. The more sources of information available, the greater the public’s knowledge, and this role is performed by the media.
Akeke, Akeke and Awolusi(2015) observed that the purpose of the media is for political communication.Propaganda in politics was the problem that drew the researchers’ attention to this study, on how wrong or false information is disseminated by the media to make or mar a presidential candidate from attaining a leadership position. Irrespective of the fact that the media creates awareness, majority of the populace and even voters lack basic knowledge about the entire political process, and may take unreasonable decisions on election matters particularly. Slant, language, frequency, interest and bias of reportage which the media chooses may have negative or positive influence on voting behaviour and consequently on leadership ascendancy which in the negative leads to electoral violence. About 1000 people lost their lives in the 2011 Presidential elections (Olukotun 2014). Also Prior to the presidential election of March 28, 2015, there were a lot of trepidation about the elections turning violent because of previous experiences of some politicians seeing the election as a do-or-die issue, fighting dirty with half-truths, outright lies and bitter words.
Hence the two major contestants Goodluck Ebele Jonathan and Muhammad Buhari along with other party leaders first signed what has now come to be known as the Abuja Accord on January 14, 2015. It was adopted first through acclamation and then signed by all candidates present.
For purpose of clarity, the Accord binds the candidates on covenants: To run issue-based campaigns at all level, shorn and devoid of religious incitement and ethnic or tribal profiting. To avoid making inflammatory or inciting statements and declarations capable of stoking the fire of violence and unrest before, during or after the election. To denounce publicly provocative utterances and oppose all acts of electoral violence whether perpetrated by supporters and/or opponents. To commit themselves and their parties to the monitoring of the adherence to the accord if necessary, by a national peace committee composed of respected statesmen and women, traditional and religious leaders. All the institutions of the government including INEC and security agencies must act and be seen to act with impartiality. They apparently agreed for themselves and on behalf of their supporters that there will be peace before, during and after the elections whether they win or lose. They agreed, among other thing, to run an issue-based campaign and vowed that their electoral campaigns will not involve any religious provocation, ethnic or tribal profiling, both by themselves and all agents acting on their behalf. It was again renewed on Thursday March, 26, 2015, 48 hours to the election. This dread may not be unconnected with the fact that in 2011, around 1000 people were killed in violence after President Goodluck defeated President Buhari (Olukotun 2014).
According to Towolawi (2015), ‘nothing fuels electoral violence as base, sentimental campaign dimensioned on primitive and primordial inclinations with no bearing on agenda, ideology, peoples’ welfare, governance, and development. Our politicians must shun puerile mudslinging and needless character assassination to further political agenda’. The influence of media on Nigerians especially during the 2011 and 2015 presidential elections sequel to voting behaviour is worthy of study. Television broadcasts and newspaper stories are the important source of information about the conduct of government and politicians, clearly indicating how important it is to study media influence. George and Waldfogel (2006), Della, Vigna and Kaplan (2007) assert that media sources may influence the public not only by choosing the slant of a particular report, but also merely by choosing what to report. This study therefore examined the influence of media reporting on voting behavior and leadership ascendancy during the 2011, and 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria.
1.3 Objective of the Study
The main objective of this study was to examine the influence of media reporting on voting behaviour and leadership ascendancy, using the 2011 and 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria as a case in point.The specific objectives are to:
1.4 Research Questions
In giving direction to this work, the following research questions were asked.
The following hypotheses were tested at 0.05 level of significance:
H01:Media reporting has no influence on voting behaviour.
H02:Media reporting has no influence on leadership ascendancy.
H03: There is no significant relationship between voting behaviour and leadership ascendancy.
H04: There is no composite influence of media reporting and voting behaviour on leadership ascendancy.
1.6 Significance of the Study
This study would enlighten relevant stakeholders such as, political parties, candidates and civic society organization, on the influence of reporting on political awareness and campaign opportunity. The study would guide the thought of the electorate not to believe everything they hear from the media. It will also add to the body of existing knowledge on the type of influence exerted by media reporting on voting behaviour.
This research would inform government and other electoral management body that media reporting will continue to set agenda for political discussion and voting behavior for people during elections, consequently impacting leadership ascendancy.
This study would ignite or kindle voters’ verification of information reported by the media before taking a decision on which candidate to vote for. It would create the consciousness on voters on the need to rely on credible alternate sources of information before making their decision.
Finally, this studywould establish empirically the extent of media reporting influence on voting behaviour towards the choice of candidates in 2011 and 2015 presidential elections.
1.7 Scope of the Study
There is no doubt that media reporting and its influence on voting behavior to leadership ascendancy cuts across every level of election in different times ranging from 2011 and 2015 presidential elections. The study examined the impact of media reporting limited to radio, television and newspaper reporting and its influence on voting behavior to leadership ascendancy. This study is set to determine the type of influence, the factors determining the behaviour and attitude that voters adopt based on information available to them from the media and how it is reported in six states purposively selected from each geopolitical zone in Nigeria with a focus on presidential elections of 2011 and 2015. The focus is chosen because of its currency and the peculiarities of both presidential candidates, Muhammadu Buhari and Goodluck Jonathan contesting in 2011 and 2015 concurrently. This work shall be limited to the reporting of the following television channels: Channels television, African Independent Television, Nigerian Television Authority. This is on the basis that they are widely watched television stations, and covers all the states in Nigeria. And the following newspapers: The Guardian, Vanguard, The Nation, Daily Sun, Leadership and The Punch. This is also selected on their rating as the most widely read newspapers in Nigeria.
1.8 Operational Definition of Terms
The following are terms which occur in the research study which need to be defined to enable the reader understand the appropriate context in which they have been used.
Media Reporting: is the recounting of news worthy events by television, print media, and radio, to inform or educate as comprehensively and accurately as possible, to the public who are expected to be guided by facts, accuracy and objectivity.
Voting Behaviour: is a form of political behaviour exhibited by electorate. The systematic study of the voting patterns of the electorate of a given constituency in an election which provides insight into the sociology of the voters, factors that influence their voting patterns and the direction of their votes.
Election: involves the choice of persons who are to exercise authority on behalf of the people. It is a democratic means by which people choose their representatives or rulers. It allows the people to choose between two or more alternatives. Elections are held in every sphere of life where all the people cannot be directly involved such as clubs, churches, schools, professional associations etc.
Leadership Ascendancy: is the action of leading or directing a group of people or an organization, or the ability to occupy a position of dominant power or influence or the state of being in the leading; governing or controlling influence; domination. Leadership is developed through social influences. On one end of the range a leader is defined by a set of recommended behaviors which separates them from followers. On the other end, leadership is a temporary role that can be filled by anyone who has displayed intelligence, dominance, self-confidence, level of energy and activity, and task-relevant knowledge.
Media Ownership: refers to proprietary, financing and control of mass communication for the purpose of making profit and enhancing the profession of journalism. It is the owning of a medium or media of communications such as newspaper, magazine, television or radio for the dissemination of information, views, opinions and ideas within the confined laws of a country.
Agenda Setting: is an action undertaken by the media whereby the frequency of a particular news item and importance attached to it by the media raises the consciousness and discussion of government and the public thus determining what people will think and talk about in order to make a change.
1.9 Chapter Outline
The study comprises six chapters. The first chapter is the introductory chapter highlighting the research problem, objectives, hypotheses, scope, significance and definition of key terms. The second chapter reviews relevant scholarly literature on the understudied phenomena, and interrogate the major theoretical underpinning of the study. The third chapter contains the methodology that is applied for effective execution of the research; the specifics of the research design and methods and instruments that is applied in the study. The fourth chapter consists of the presentation of data collected through questionnaire administration, analyses, and discussion of these data. The fifth chapter covers the presentation and content analysis of the interview responses and front page reports of selected national newspapers, while the sixth and final chapter contains the summary of the study, conclusion, and recommendations.
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