VOTERS’ BEHAVIOUR AND THE 2015 GENERAL ELECTION PROCESS IN NIGERIA

ABSTRACT

Nigeria is one of the most ethnically and religiously diverse country in Africa and over time, ethnic and religious considerations have been built into the electoral system itself. These factors were overly observed in the 2015 general elections. The study investigated voters’ behaviour during the 2015 general election process in Nigeria. The study adopted qualitative approach. The success of the study relied mainly on secondary data which were sourced from textbooks, newspapers, magazines and the internet. The findings of the study revealed that religion, ethnicity and regionalism all significantly influenced voter’s behaviour in the 2015 general elections in Nigeria. Also party affiliation significantly influenced voter’s behavior in the 2015 general elections. To this end, the study recommended that the culture of legitimacy by results must be maintained by Nigerians, implying that people should vote for an individual based on his historical records, what he has been able to achieve before and what he is likely to achieve now, not to select representatives on the basis of religion, ethnicity, tribalism or regional affiliation.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

• BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Since the return to civil rule on 29 May 1999, Nigeria has held five general elections, apart from sundry re-run elections and local government polls conducted by the electoral body. Out of the five general elections conducted, only the 2015 general election met both the local and international standard. The disturbing trend is that each general election was worse than the preceding one (2003 was worse than 1999; and 2007 was worse than 2003). This trend shows that Nigeria is faring very badly at each passing election as nobody can talk of consolidating democracy in an environment characterized by electoral violence, electoral fraud, ethnic loyalty, party affiliation and religious sentiments.

Conducting a free and fair election is vital to the growth and development of any democratic process.  Also, an average Nigerian voter is interested in immediate pecuniary or material rewards, and will easily trade off his votes when appropriately induced. This  can  be explained  by  the  crippling  poverty  facing  the  people  in  the  absence  of government’s  provision  of  the basic amenities required for decent living, as well as their justified distrust of the political leaders (Ebegbulem, 2011).

Indeed, one major element of electoral process is that election must be conducted in a free and fair atmosphere, while electoral results must reflect the wishes of the people.   Nigeria’s  experience  in  this  regard  had  since  independence  been contrary  to  this  expectation.  This  is  because  previous  and  present electoral  bodies  had  conducted  elections  in  a  way  that  favoured  the ruling  political  parties  through  poor  planning,  the  device  of  excluding electorates from voting in places considered to be the strongholds of opposition, inadequate supply of voting materials, and late arrival of electoral officers to polling stations.

Conventionally, voting is the fulcrum of political participation in liberal democracies.  Voters’ behaviour can explain the raison de’tre for decision making by the electorate. Goldman (1966) submits that inferences and predictions about behaviour concerning a voting decision involves certain factors that are not limited to gender, race, culture, or religion. For him also key public influences include the role of emotions, political socialization, tolerance of diversity of political views and the media. Essentially, the effect of these influences on voting behaviour can best be understood through proper scrutiny on the formation of attitude, beliefs, schema, knowledge structures and the practice of information processing. Survey from different countries indicates that people are generally happier in individualistic cultures where they have rights such as the right to vote (Diener, 2000).

In a multilingual, multi-cultural democratic setting like Nigeria, voting behaviour is dictated by a plethora of complex issues. This stems from the fact that it involves an analysis of individual psychological processes vis-à-vis perception, emotion, and motivation and to a large extent, their relation to political action as well as of institutional patterns, such as the communication process and their impacts on elections. In national elections, it is usually the norm that people vote based on their political beliefs. However, considering the fact that a voter is a rational creature in the philosophical sense of the term, he is not so rational; in the realms of his economic or political behavior (Joseph, 2015).

Voter behaviour to this extent displays the astounding factor that the behaviour of man is influenced by several irrational factors and pressure group in invoking religious and communal sentiments, influence of money or charismatic personality of a leader and a host of other irrational forces on the minds of the voter.

Apparently, several variables have been adduced that may moderate voter behaviour. Researches have shown that variables such as electoral fraud, ethnic loyalty, party affiliation and religious affiliation have extensively affected voter behaviour in every election held in Nigeria (Healy et al, 2010, Gomez, 2007, Miller, 2011, Parker, 2010, Valentine, et al 2010). Nigeria’s  seventeen  years  of  uninterrupted  democratic  experience  cannot  in any  way  be  compared  with  that  of  United States which is over two hundred years or with Britain over three hundred years. This is because there are  still  cases  of  anti-democratic  practices,  especially  in  the  areas  of  electoral  processes,  rule  of law  and  constitutionalism (Kwasau, 2013). Also, related to this problem is the fact that electoral malpractices often lead to legitimacy crisis which help to erode democratic practices. Therefore this research study seeks to investigate voters’ behaviour and the 2015 general election process in Nigeria.

• STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Since the country’s return to democratic rule in 1999, transitional elections in 2003, 2007,  2011  and 2015 were  won  and  lost  under  conditions  in  which electoral  malpractices,  rigging  and  violence were pronounced, a phenomenon described by Dauda as “The Slippery side of landslide” (Dauda 2007:102). Participation in Elections in Nigeria is characterized by electoral fraud, ethnic loyalty, party affiliation and religious affiliation. Under such circumstances,  elections give rise to the primitive accumulation  of  votes,  which  means winning  of  votes  by  both objective  and structural  violence  and  disregard  for  the  rule  of  law. In this kind of environment, there is usually sustained rigging which ensures that votes do not count and voters are not counted leading to the lack of electoral credibility.

Consolidating democracy in Nigeria as a whole through the conduct of credible elections has remained an albatross. The history of Nigeria’s democratic experiments demonstrates that elections and electoral politics have generated so much animosity which has, in some cases, threatened the corporate existence of the country (such as happened after the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election) and in other cases instigated military incursion in to political governance, most notably in 1966 and 1983.

Since the inauguration of the fourth republic, a pattern is already emerging which points to the fact that political elites have not learnt much from the mistakes of the past. The various crises plaguing the major parties and emerging ones and the various inter-party crisis of the defections in the Nigeria, cross carpeting of representatives and other elected officers in the country are vivid instances of this tendency. This danger has resulted to the high level of political abduction, harassment, arson, and assassinations, withdrawal of credible and qualified professionals in the race. It is against this background that this study seeks to investigate voters’ behaviour and the 2015 general election process in Nigeria.

• OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

The general objective of this study is to explore voters’ behaviour and the 2015 general election process in Nigeria. The specific objectives are:

1. To investigate ethnic loyalty and voters’ behaviour during the 2015 general election in Nigeria.
2. To find out the influence of party affiliation on voter behaviour and participation in the 2015 general election in Nigeria.
3. To ascertain the relationship between electoral fraud and voter behaviour in the 2015 general election in Nigeria.
4. To assess the effect of electoral malpractices on democratic consolidation in Nigeria.
5. To explore the factors that influenced the voting behavior of electorates during the 2015 general elections.
   • RESEARCH HYPOTHESES

HYPOTHESES ONE

Ho:  Ethnicity does not influence voter’s behaviour?

Hi:  Ethnicity does not influence voter’s behaviour?

HYPOTHESES TWO

Ho: Uneven distribution of government appointment among ethnic groups does not influence the voting behaviour of Nigerians.

Hi: Uneven distribution of government appointment among ethnic groups influences the voting behaviour of Nigerians

1.5       SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

The study has both theoretical and practical significance. Theoretically, the study is a contribution to earlier studies on ethnicity and voter behaviour in Nigeria. Practically, the study has the potential of serving as a veritable tool for policy makers in terms of Economic Planning vis-a-vis job creation, government appointments, allocation of resources, etc. It will also serve as a guide to and motivate students in Political Science and Comparative Politics to embark on further research on the subject matter.

1.6 SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

This study is primary concerned with voters; behaviour and the 2015 general election process in Nigeria. This study/project work covers  The researcher encountered some constraints, which limited the scope of the study. These constraints include but are not limited to the following

1. a) AVAILABILITY OF RESEARCH MATERIAL: The research material available to the researcher is insufficient, thereby limiting the study
2. b) TIME: The time frame allocated to the study does not enhance wider coverage as the researcher has to combine other academic activities and examinations with the study.

1.7 DEFINITION OF TERMS

VOTERS: These are people who have the legal right to vote in elections, or people who are voting in a particular election.

BEHAVIOR: conduct, deportment, comportment refer to one’s actions before or toward others, especially on a particular occasion. Behavior refers to actions usually measured by commonly accepted standards.

ELECTION An election is a process in which people vote to choose a person or group of people to hold an official position.

 1.8 ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY

This research work is organized in five chapters, for easy understanding, as follows

Chapter one is concerned with the introduction, which consist of the (overview, of the study), historical background, statement of problem, objectives of the study, research hypotheses, significance of the study, scope and limitation of the study, definition of terms and historical background of the study. Chapter two highlights the theoretical framework on which the study is based, thus the review of related literature. Chapter three deals on the research design and methodology adopted in the study. Chapter four concentrate on the data collection and analysis and presentation of finding.  Chapter five gives summary, conclusion, and recommendations made of the study

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